Premier League Betting: Key Stats for the 2025-26 Season

The English Premier League generates more betting volume than any other football competition in the world. Its competitive balance, global broadcasting, and deep statistical coverage make it ideal for data-driven betting. Here are the key statistical trends shaping the 2025-26 season.

Goals and BTTS Rates

The Premier League has consistently averaged between 2.7 and 2.9 goals per game over the past decade. The Over 2.5 Goals hit rate typically sits around 52-55%, making it a fairly balanced market. BTTS rates tend to hover around 48-52% — competitive enough to find value on both sides.

Key insight: home teams score in approximately 73% of Premier League matches, while away teams score in about 62%. This means the raw BTTS base rate is roughly 73% × 62% = 45.3% before accounting for correlation effects.

Home Advantage in Decline

One of the most significant long-term trends in football is the erosion of home advantage. Pre-COVID, home teams won approximately 46% of Premier League matches. Post-COVID (after fans returned), the figure has settled around 42-44% — still an advantage, but smaller than historically assumed.

This has implications for betting: bookmakers have been slow to fully adjust their models, occasionally offering slight value on away teams and draws.

The Mid-Season Congestion Factor

December through February is the most congested period in the English football calendar. Teams playing in European competitions, domestic cups, and a packed league schedule see increased fatigue and squad rotation. Historically, mid-table teams with lighter schedules outperform their league position during this period, while European contenders sometimes drop points.

Set Piece Dominance

Set pieces account for roughly 30% of all Premier League goals. Teams with height advantages and well-coached set piece routines can significantly outperform their open-play xG metrics. This is one area where AI models add particular value — by tracking set piece conversion rates and matching them against upcoming opponents' defensive vulnerabilities at set pieces.

Using Data to Your Advantage

Every SykikAI Premier League prediction includes a detailed analysis breaking down these factors. Our models evaluate team form, expected goals, defensive metrics, set piece data, and fixture context to generate probability estimates for every market. The goal is to give you the same analytical edge that professional betting syndicates have relied on for decades.